Why is -13.5 the best line to bet ATS?
December 19th, 2017
Written by Romeo Pericic

From September 8, 1985 till November 23, 2017, there have been 8,275 games played where the odds makers presented a line for us to bet on.
The most commonly used line is -3.0, favoring the home team by 3 points. Below, the top 40 lines are depicted, which constitute 93.5% of all games.

As you can see from the table below, the odds makers are pretty good as their objective is to have as close to a 50/50 split as possible to make a profit. However, there are certain lines which do offer us an edge!

It seems that the best line to bet is -13.5 and to bet the away underdog as it has historically offered an 18.84% advantage.
This is the line the odds makers most often get wrong. In the 67 games that this line was present, the away team has covered the spread 59.42% of the time (41-28), while the home team covered only 40.58% of the time!

The next best lines betting the away team are:
  • 4.5 (away team the favorite) has offered a 17.95% advantage
  •  -12.5 has offered a 17.65% advantage
  •  -11 has offered a 14.61% advantage
  •  -9.5 has offered a 14.47% advantage
When it comes to betting on the home team, the best lines are: + 5.0 (away team is the favorite) has offered a 17.86% advantage and -13.0 has offered a 17.72% advantage.

Of the most common lines used, we can still gain an advantage on several of them. When the home team is favored by 3.5, 4.0, or 6.0 points, there is still a significant deviation from the 50/50 split!

The eighth most common line, -4.0, has been present 264 times. The home team has covered 54.92% of the time (145-111) – This line and these results have offered the second highest Units gain as well (+22.9 units), second only to betting on the away team when the line was -6.0.

The seventh most common line, -6.0, has been present 291 times. The away team has covered 54.64% of the time (159-122), gaining the most Units of any line, +24.8!

Finally, the third most common line used, -3.5, offers an advantage as well. There have been 450 games with the line set at -3.5. Once again, the advantage goes to the away team, 242-208 (53.78%) with a net gain of 13.2 units!
Below is the chart with the top 40 lines used (93.5% of all games), the number of wins and percent wins for all lines, as well as the percent advantages.

An interesting side note is that the two most common lines, -3.0 and +3.0, have offered the most pushes, 82 and 46 respectively, and they account for 54.47% of all pushes!

And for completeness sakes, here are the rest of the lines...

Here is the excel file for download!
Edgar Gutierrez
November 29th, 2017 11:36 am
Very useful information, I usually use your predicted results as a benchmark for my own, keep it running congrats.
November 27th, 2017 12:23 am
great data! since i can't open your site at work, any chance on being able to get this info in an excel file????

--- Of course - emailed it to you and inserted a link for download in the post above!
Leave a Comment
* Name
* Email (will not be published)
* Enter verification code
* - Reqiured fields