134th Kentucky Derby

The 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is set to go this Saturday, May 3rd at Churchill Downs Racetrack. These are my picks, and this is my analysis......I have picked 5 of the last 9 Kentucky Derby Winners. Unfortunately, from a betting standpoint, the favorite, Big Brown, is my pick to win. There are, however, a few long shots which will make the exotics very attractive....

A few words about the system. I use a total of 88 factors (courtesy of All-Ways Software), then search for, what I have termed, "profiles" using genetic algorithms (courtesy of Evolver). Profiles are various combinations of six factors which have shown to be great predictors of winners, as well as losers.

Profiles 1-11 single out winning combinations. Profiles 12-21 point to those horses who have never finished in the money, and profiles 22-35 point to horses who have not won, but have on rare occasions finished in the money.

For example, Big Brown fits 7 different profiles that have pointed to eventual winners over the past 9 years, and does not fit any negative profiles. Recapturetheglory fits 3 winning profiles, no profiles that point to not in the money, and only two non winning profiles.......

I suggest the following plays:

(1) $1.00 Trifecta Box ; 20-18-12-7-5 ($60.00) (LOST)

(2) $1.00 Superfecta: 20 with 18-12 with 18-12-7-5 with ALL ($102.00) (LOST)

(3) $1.00 Trifecta: 20-18-12 with 20-18-12-7-5 with 20-18-12-7-5-15-17-2-9-16-19 ($108.00) (WON - $1,722.80)

I have also keyed my top horse each of the last 9 years with all - will do again this year as well:
20 - All - All ($342.00) (WON - $1,722.80)

Previous Kentucky Derby Picks

Total Winnings over $12,500.00