NFL Betting Lines

Written by Romeo Pericic, MD - 08/26/2022

Every sports book attempts to set a line where 50% bet one way and the other 50% the opposite way. With this being the case the sports books will always be profitable. Once the line is set and the public heavily bets one-way, it will cause a line movement in an attempt to equalize betting on both sides. In this analysis I wanted to assess if there are any edges when it comes to NFL betting lines against the spread.

The analysis includes the last 10 NFL seasons (2012-2021). There were a total of 2,690 games played. The following are the results. Included in the analysis are only those lines that were present more than 50 times.

We are all very well aware of just how accurate the oddsmakers lines are. However, there are a few lines which have showed an inconsistency in the oddsmakers accuracy.

 

Conclusions:

Although the oddsmakers are incredibly adroit at setting lines, the following may offer an advantage:

• The Away team, as a 5.0 point underdog, has won 38 out of 63 games ATS (60.3%).

• The Away team, as a 10.0 point underdog, has won 31 out of 55 games ATS (56.4%) and lost only 19 of 55 (34.6%), as there were 5 pushes.

• The Away team, as a 5.5 point underdog, has won 31 out of 51 games ATS (60.8%).

• The Away team, as a 7.0 point favorite, has won 39 out of 65 games ATS (60.0%).