How accurate is the RP – Excel system:

Written by Romeo Pericic, MD - 08/26/2022

The Prediction Tracker website has been following NFL picks since 2000. Throughout the years approximately 120 handicappers were tracked with their selections. The RP – Excel system joined the prediction tracker in 2008. The most notable handicappers tracked are the following: ESPN, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, Dunkel Index, Stat Fox, Game Time Decision, Beck ELO, Todd Beck's PerformanZ Ratings, Bihl Rankings, Sonny Moore, Pythagorean Ratings, and Kasulis Enhanced Spread, to name a few.

The following analysis is for the last 10 NFL seasons. As all of you are very well aware of, it is almost impossible to have a winning record against the spread, especially if every single game is predicted. However, that's exactly what the prediction tracker website tracks, every single prediction for every single game against the spread as well as straight up. In the last 10 seasons, only 34 handicappers have participated in all of them and are currently still active, RP – Excel being one of them.

For this analysis, handicappers must have had predictions for at least five of those 10 seasons, and all of the last three seasons. A total of 50 handicappers qualified for the following analysis. Of the 50 handicappers, 37 of them had a win percentage over 50%. However, only four handicappers had a winning percentage over 52% which is necessary to obtain a profit. The RP – Excel system is one of those four!

In the last 10 seasons the RP–Excel system predicted a total of 2,606 games, winning 1,293 against the spread, which is a very respectable 52.82% win rate.

On a yearly basis there was a minimum of 60 or so handicappers per year, and the average RP – Excel rank was 18.3. This was the second best amongst all handicappers. As mentioned earlier, only four handicappers were able to manage a winning percentage rate above 52% and show a profit against the spread, assuming a -110 line. RP – Excel showed a profit of 22 units predicting 2,606 games.

During the course of the last 10 NFL seasons, RP – Excel system was very close to 60% winners against the spread with the top suggestions, which averaged approximately 3 to 5 plays per week. Since 2008 the RP Excel system was in the top 10 a total of six times. Last year, the RP Excel system was sixth overall with a 53% win rate. My experimental system that utilizes neural networks for predictions finished in seventh place (still a work in progress).

The 2021 NFL season was an extremely difficult one to predict as only 20 handicappers managed a win percentage rate of 50% or above.

I would be remiss not mentioning that Bihl Rankings, Donchess Inference, Dokter Entropy, Game Time Decision, Pi-Rate Ratings, Kasulis ESP2, and System Median, all picked Straight Up Winners at 65% or greater. A congratulations on that feat is warranted! Congratulations!

(PS - The RP-Excel Systems are in NO way associated with The Prediction Tracker)