NFL Away Team Favorites Win Percentages
How important are the actual points scored in predicting future outcomes?
All NFL seasons from 09-08-1985 through 02-11-2024 — a total of 10,036 games.
Here is the complete breakdown...
How The Data Is Organized
Each row represents a unique closing line at which a team has been an away favorite. No. G is the count of games at that line, Aw W and Hm W are straight-up wins by the away and home teams, and the right-hand columns show the same matchups graded against the spread (Aw W ATS / Hm W ATS, with pushes excluded).
The Headline Numbers
Across nearly four decades of data, away favorites win straight up at a remarkable 63.5% clip — only a few points lower than home favorites despite giving up home-field advantage. The ATS column is where the edge historically lived: small road chalks of -1 to -3 have covered well above 50% in many seasons, making them one of the most reliable spots in the betting market.
Pairing With Points Per Game
Overlaying away-favorite results with each team's average road points scored sharpens the picture. The teams that travel well — Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, San Francisco — are the same franchises that produce the best SU and ATS numbers when favored on the road.
Practical Use
- Small road chalks (-1 to -3) have historically been the highest-value spot for away favorites.
- Larger road favorites (greater than -7) tend to regress toward the market — fade with discipline.
- Cross-reference closing line with the team's road PPG to filter out hollow favorites.