NFL Field Goal Attempts Per Game
How important are Field Goal Attempts in predicting future outcomes?
All NFL seasons from 09-07-1986 through 02-11-2024 — a total of 9,803 games.
Methodology
All averages are cumulative — every game played prior to the matchup date is averaged together. That means a game played in 2023 includes the running average of every NFL game played since 1986.
The average Field Goal Attempts for Away Teams includes only games played away, and the average Field Goal Attempts for Home Teams includes only games played at home.
The Results
Home Teams With More Field Goal Attempts
When the home team enters the game averaging more field goal attempts than the visitor, the home team has historically won straight up at well above a coin-flip rate. The leaderboard is dominated by franchises with long histories of disciplined offenses that consistently move the chains: Cleveland, Green Bay, New England, Pittsburgh and Denver all sit at the top of the table. The ATS results, as expected, regress toward 50% — but the top teams still cover at a profitable clip.
Away Teams With More Field Goal Attempts
On the road the signal is noisier but still useful. Visiting teams that attempt more field goals than the home team tend to win at a lower clip than the home-side scenario, which is expected given the inherent home-field advantage in the league. However, several franchises — Baltimore, San Francisco and Pittsburgh among them — post excellent ATS numbers when traveling as the higher-FG-attempt team.
Key Takeaways
- FG attempts is a stable, slow-moving stat — perfect for season-long modeling.
- Home teams with the FG-attempt edge convert that edge into wins more reliably than visitors do.
- The ATS edge is smaller but still positive for the top tier of teams, suggesting the betting market under-prices this metric.