NFL Rushing Yards Per Game Analysis
The ground game still wins games — just not the way you'd expect
Rushing yards per game is one of the more misunderstood NFL stats. High rushing totals are often a consequence of winning rather than a cause — teams run more when they're ahead. But when used as a season-long average and compared between two teams, rushing yards still carry real predictive weight.
Home Splits
Home teams that average more rushing yards than their opponent win straight up at exceptional rates — the top of this table reads like a list of the league's most physical, well-coached franchises. New England, Baltimore and Tampa Bay all sit at or near the top.
Away Splits
On the road, the rushing edge is significantly less reliable. Only a handful of teams — Baltimore, Arizona, the Giants — manage to translate a road rushing advantage into above-baseline win rates. For most teams the road rushing edge regresses heavily.
Takeaways
- Treat home rushing edges as a strong positive signal.
- Treat road rushing edges with caution — they often reflect game-script bias rather than true skill.
- Combine with passing yards: teams that out-pass and out-rush their opponent are the cleanest plays.