How Accurate Is The RP–Excel System
A decade of NFL predictions, tracked publicly against 120+ handicappers
The Prediction Tracker website has followed NFL picks since 2000, grading roughly 120 handicappers against the spread and straight up — every single game, every single prediction. The RP–Excel system joined the tracker in 2008.
Notable handicappers tracked include ESPN, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, Dunkel Index, Stat Fox, Game Time Decision, Beck ELO, Todd Beck's PerformanZ Ratings, Bihl Rankings, Sonny Moore, Pythagorean Ratings, and Kasulis Enhanced Spread, to name a few.
The Analysis
This review covers the last 10 NFL seasons. As bettors well know, beating the spread is extremely difficult — especially when every single game must be predicted. The Prediction Tracker enforces exactly that constraint. To qualify for this analysis, a handicapper needed predictions in at least five of the last 10 seasons and all of the last three. 50 handicappers qualified.
The 10-Year Record
Over the last 10 seasons RP–Excel predicted every game on the board and won 1,293 of 2,606 against the spread — a 52.82% clip that translated into a +22-unit profit assuming a standard −110 line.
Average Yearly Rank
On a yearly basis the field has been a minimum of roughly 60 handicappers. The RP–Excel system's average rank across those 10 seasons is 18.3 — the second-best figure of any handicapper in the field. Since 2008, RP–Excel has finished in the top 10 a total of six times. Last year it placed sixth overall with a 53% win rate; an experimental neural-net system finished seventh (still a work in progress).
The Top Suggestions
Across the last 10 NFL seasons the RP–Excel system has been very close to 60% winners against the spread on its top suggestions — roughly 3 to 5 plays per week. These are the highest-confidence selections produced by the model each week.
The Rankings — Full Field
Below are the three official Prediction Tracker leaderboards covering the last 10 NFL seasons, sorted by Units-ATS, ATS%, and Average Rank respectively. RP–Excel is highlighted in row 3, 3, and 2.
Context & Honorable Mentions
The 2021 NFL season was extremely difficult to predict — only 20 of the 50 qualifying handicappers managed a win rate of 50% or above.
It's worth noting that Bihl Rankings, Donchess Inference, Dokter Entropy, Game Time Decision, Pi-Rate Ratings, Kasulis ESP2, and System Median all picked straight-up winners at 65% or greater. A congratulations on that feat is warranted — congratulations!
PS — The RP–Excel Systems are in no way associated with The Prediction Tracker.